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Clean energy accounted for just 26% of demand for six key minerals—copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and magnet rare earths—in 2024. The remaining 74% was consumed by construction, conventional transport, industrial machinery, defense, electronics, and other sectors. An Oakland Institute analysis using IEA data found that non-renewable uses accounted for 83% of nickel demand, 79% of magnet rare-earth demand, 71% of copper demand, and 68% of both cobalt and graphite demand in 2024. Construction alone consumed 30% of global copper, while stainless-steel production accounted for roughly two-thirds of global nickel demand.
The IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 roadmap projects a dramatic increase in electric vehicles (EVs), from 11 million in 2020 to nearly 2 billion by 2050. Oakland Institute estimates that EVs would consume 15.7 million metric tons of these minerals by 2050, representing 23% of projected demand. However, a UC Davis study modeled four pathways to zero-emissions transportation in the U.S., showing that smaller batteries, lower vehicle ownership, and improved recycling could reduce lithium demand by up to 92% by 2050. Even with continued car dependence, smaller batteries could cut lithium demand by 42%. The IEA projects that recycling could reduce primary copper and cobalt requirements by 30% by 2040 and primary lithium and nickel requirements by 15% by 2030 under net-zero scenarios. Without increased recycling, mining investment would need to be one-third higher to meet projected demand.
The U.S. government’s focus on critical minerals extends beyond energy transition. At the February 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial, officials highlighted defense, AI, advanced manufacturing, and economic security as key drivers for increased production. Vice President JD Vance proposed a preferential trading bloc using price floors and adjustable tariffs. The administration also promoted federal loans, equity investments, and mineral stockpiles, emphasizing defense procurement, AI, and competition with China as primary motivations. A $600-million investment by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation in a $1.8-billion critical-mineral consortium underscores this priority. However, challenges remain, including land rights conflicts: a Nature Sustainability study found that 54% of energy-transition mineral projects are within 10 kilometers of Indigenous peoples’ land, and 33% are near peasant lands.
The advertised need for hundreds of new mines isn’t solely about replacing fossil fuels. It also covers minerals for weapons, data centers, construction, and conventional industry. Smaller batteries, fewer cars, and higher recycling rates could significantly reduce the need for new ore. UNCTAD estimates 250 new copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt mines are needed to meet emissions targets, but Oakland’s analysis shows that most current demand comes from non-renewable sectors.
